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Ok,
second year I started my blog a little different from previous years with a
little promotion of myself anyway if you have been reading my blogs you know I
was trained to be a Sterling bull & if you been following the the Forex
market, Sterling has not been bullish since the end of 2007. With no
hawkish action from the B.O.E. in years now, with BREXIT( which is the separation
from the European Union) past us now it seems Sterling will recover but slowly
compared too previous years of directional trend trading! You can expect more range trading volume with
deep bearish direction before continuing bullish direction…
Furthermore,
the conservatives are now in control from a political point of view which furthers
the bull mode. Well if there’sany strength in sterling in 2018 it should be
against the USD & JPY doing the first 5 month of the year. Trump is
the President of the States and the Greenback should advance showing signs of
weakness, when the Republicans are in power the Greenback historically weakens!,
but Global economic growth greatly increases!!!!JPY has been showing great
power since the start of the global recession but from a technical point of
view It's time for investor who move the market to short JPY except against the
USD, I would look for Sterling and the Euro to advance in 2018 against JPY
especially during the first 5 to 6 months. Finally the JPY, from a
Geopolitical & fundamental point of view will weaken in 2018 Japan is an
export Country Japanese economy benefits from a weaker JPY! What will make this forecast really correct
is, I’m sure B.O.E., will finally raise rates in 2018, with a monster drop in
currency value after Brexit, well prices are great for the banking system as a
whole, investors, etc., also there maybe signs of inflation so with everything
that has happen the last two years, I would trade Sterling with a strong
possibility for a rate hike and more of a hawkish tone from B.O.E.! Crude Oil maybe a sleeping giant in 2018, yes
I know the States has a huge surplus but it doesn’t matter, if there’s problems
with the manufactures’ like explosions or issues with production or
transportation globally, major war, etc., the States more than likely will NOT release
the surplus greatly increasing the crude oil prices & raising Sterling
whileweakening JPY!
Price action from 2017: GBP/USD= January 2017 open at,
1.2426 bearish trending to the year low of 1.1969 in mid. January then
retracing bullish to, 1.2695 at month end.
Sterling retraces bearish to, 1.2093 until mid. March then a stronger
bullish trend starts hitting, 1.3058 in mid. May then retracing bearish to,
1.2565 on June, 18th.
Sterling bullish trend continues again to, 1.3268 but support fails
& bears to, 1.2761 through August 21st. From this point Sterling starts a major bull
trend reaching a year high of, 1.3650 on September 17th! Furthermore
a bearish trend develops for over a month to, 1.3025 through the month of October;
Sterling recovers to, 1.3540 on Novemeber26th.
Finally retracing bearish to, 1.3312 on December 17th, &
finishing the year trending bullish to, 1.3504…
A review of GBP/JPY= January 2017 opens at, 145.38, trending
bearish to, 136.19 in mid. Januaryretracing bullish to, 144.70 at the end of
the month, bearish trend continues to 135.52 the low of the year on April 16th.. Sterling bulls to, 148.00 in the first week
of May then retraces bearish to, 138.47 during the second week in June,
Sterling bulls to, 147.91 in the first week in July but support fails to,
139.44 during the 3rd week in August, then Sterling hits it’s best
bull trend of the year reaching a high of, 152.82 in mid. September.. A retrace starts to the first week of October
to, 146.88 support bulls Sterling to, 151.94 on, October 29th. Sterling bears to, 146.84 & on November,
26th a bullish trend returns hitting a year high of 153.33 on
December 3rd!! Finally
retracing to 149.35 on December, 10th& finishing the year
trending bullish to, 152.34…
Finally, I just want to say 2017 was the first break out
year of Bitcoin, however I would say it’s a new paradigm in our lives, it
trends really volatile I would focus on only Bitcoin to financially benefit from its creation
& not trade multi-currency pairs, unless your investment capital is
tremendously abundant!
SUPPORT
& RESISTANCE LEVELS FOR YEAR 2018: GBP/USD = (1.6450 MAJOR) 1.5775
(1.5400 MAJOR) 1.5000 1.4275
1.3800 (1.3600 MAJOR) 1.3100
SUPPORT
& RESISTANCE LEVELS FOR YEAR2018: GBP/JPY = (198.00 MAJOR) (186.00 MAJOR) 175.00
(171.50 MAJOR) 165.50 159.50
151.50 (148.25 MAJOR)
Please
note my views are mainly technical but correct, review my previous blogs if you
want to be sure. Well ok I was semi-correct with sterling last year, it did
recovery quicker (maintaining strong support mostly against NZD & USD) than
I expected with more of a sideways, ranging direction but yes it was
semi-bullish & somewhat of a surprise!, I think the outlook is bullish the
Hawkish mindset returns to Sterling leaders or decision makers & with
Brexit over now, they must become Hawkish if they are concern about Sterling’s
price! England has been the powerhouse for over 5oo years in the Forex
market! Oh, the Euro will be a factor, don’t let the
fundamental issues blind you the Euro has too much support on a Global
scale to fail, perhaps even the leader over the next two to seven years,
replacing Sterling as the Overlord perhaps even becoming the reserve currency
replacing the Greenback! Once again I say, for the Euro as well a Hawkish
tone is greatly needed now but I don’t think a rate hike will happen, Sterling
needs a rate hike much more than the Euro, the Euro will be bullish even
without a rate hike in 2018.... They are many many market movers who still
support Sterling but it doesn't look like they are holding their positions
long term anymore!! Rate increases must be integrated to restore a
bullish trend& to control inflation!!
Great
day & thank you for your time remember to trade with the trend& think
in probabilities!!!! With money management we are not fortune tellers, our psychology/technical
methods just give usan edge of being correct about 60%-75% of the time, but not
on each and every trade! Developing your hedging skills in this current
market of the last 5 years hedging is a must to learn!! Technical traders
have an issue with hedging due to the fact that we tend to be perfectionist but
it's more about probabilities over a serious of trades (hedging) now and strong
money management!! Hedge fund manager make more money than the top actors in
Hollywood! Check your fundamental events
(news) daily, as well as your pivot points, remember to stay in the now moment! Technically track your H1, H4, D1, W1 &
MN 200 moving average on all timeframes for support & resistance, using
your horizontal line indicator!
Much
gratitude in contacting me with any questions or comments I’m available by
most online social media sites or just Google my name!!!!
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